I have many more go-to questions that I'll share over time. Now that I've given you three of my favorite questions, what are some of yours?
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Write down the date, time, and some details about your mental and emotional state when making the decision. Writing it down (especially long hand on paper) eliminates the opportunity for hindsight bias to creep in
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State the problem as you understand it, then rephrase it in a way that any person with no context could understand. Having to rephrase the question for someone with no context forces you to confront how deeply you understand the problem
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Identify all the variables that play into the decision, and then rank them by relative importance to you. Listing out and ranking the variables reveals what you value most at this point in time. I think big decisions like job changes would be especially interesting to track over the decades we spend working
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Write out in paragraph form the range of potential outcomes from most positive down to most negative, with as many outcomes in between as you need. Weighting the outcomes for likelihood prevents you from getting caught up in the most extreme possibilities. I think a lot fewer 20-somethings would move to Los Angeles if this exercise was a condition required to establish residence in the city
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Write in paragraph form what you think the most likely outcome is, and if it's not your most desired outcome, write what you can do to influence the probably of reaching a more desirable outcome. Comparing the most likely outcome to your desired outcome may not only change your decision, it has the potential to completely reframe the problem
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Set a date six to twelve months in the future to re-read the entry and compare how it unfolded compared to your projection.Setting a date far in advance for reflection gives you the space and emotional detachment to examine the quality of your decision making and your "correctness" in predicting the most likely outcome
With practice, this systematic consideration of the key factors and likelihood-weighted outcomes becomes closer to your default mode of thinking, even when not making a major decision.
- Write out the factors that influence the decision and determine the most important ones
- Scope the full range of potential outcomes
- Assigning the outcomes probabilities to determine the most likely outcome
Send a note back if you want me to share the results, and if there's enough interest I'll write about it next week. I would also love to hear your answer to the question, "what kind of things do you think about?"
- Using the numbers above, a family with 2 parents and 2 kids is not the same as a family with 1 parent and 3 kids (or 3 parents and 1 kid!). Each has a house with an equal number of people (4), but the families are not the same.
- Jill has a copy of each of the 13 studio albums released by The Beatles, and Jack has 13 copies of The Best of Ricky Martin. Equal number of albums, but not the same.
- Hank has 50 x $1 bills, and Bobby has 50 x $100 bills. They both have 50 seemingly identical pieces of paper, but they are not the same. If this one seems farfetched, it's because you are hung up thinking money has intrinsic value. To remedy this, offer a three year old the choice of 10 x $1 bills or 1 x $100 bill.
*Note: In the case of kids, I'm not advocating that you devote 100% of your attention to your kids for every remaining hour you have with them. If the quarantine has taught me anything it's that this is impossible and isn't healthy for you or your children. Please send help.